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Thankfully, Social Security benefits cannot be adjusted downward in that situation. The worst that can happen is that they won't increase from one year to the next year. But either way, even if 2025's COLA comes in at under 2%, it probably won't be the lowest raise on record by far.

Based on inflation, the latest projections for Social Security’s 2025 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, put is in the area of 2.6%, or about $45 per month for the average beneficiary.

Social Security benefits have (arguably) lost buying power over the last decade due to a flaw in the way cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) are calculated.

Rising inflation hits social security recipients hard. The latest estimate for Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2025 has risen to 3% due to higher-than-expected inflation, according to new calculations reported on Wednesday.