U.S. consumer prices likely picked up in June, potentially marking the start of a long-anticipated, tariff-induced increase in inflation that has left the Federal Reserve cautious about resuming its interest rate cuts.

Economists have long been warning of a tariff-driven boost to US inflation. The next report on consumer prices will put their conviction to the test.

Financial markets may be desensitized to this inflation number, noted Thierry Wizman, global foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. “Investors have gotten mor